Hirokazu Kobayashi
CEO, Green Insight Japan, Inc.
Professor Emeritus and Visiting Professor, University of Shizuoka
Throughout history, "information control" of the people has been a common government practice, but it seems to have become irrelevant in Japan today. Article 21 (Freedom of Expression) and Article 13 (Respect for the Individual) of the "Constitution of Japan" are supposed to guarantee the people's right to know. The Constitution of Japan was drafted by the General Headquarters of the Allied Powers (GHQ) and took effect in 1946. Due to its origins, it guarantees the fundamental human rights of citizens, although some parts of it need to be updated and reflect the current situation, in addition to security. During the recent Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, mass media such as television and newspapers deliberately violated it. It is believed that this has happened in the past, but the spread of social networking services (SNS) today has highlighted the manipulation of information by the mass media.
Sanae Takaichi's policies were based on an emphasis on the economy and security, and her clear argument that she would try to revive the economy through "proactive fiscal policy" was something that no other candidate could match. Since the bursting of the bubble economy in 1992, Japan's general account expenditures have exceeded general account tax revenues, and the cumulative total of special public bonds and public construction bonds is estimated to reach 1,105 trillion yen (equivalent to 7.7 trillion US dollars) by the end of the current fiscal year. The Ministry of Finance plans to resolve this situation by raising taxes and adopting an "austerity" policy. But this is only one side of the story. Japan has the world's most considerable net foreign assets of 418 trillion yen (as of the end of 2022), being equivalent to 2.9 trillion US dollars. Therefore, if we consider the net balance of payments, including interest and dividends, the severity of the accumulated public debt is low. In other words, Japan has room to pursue an aggressive fiscal policy rather than an austere one, and it is expected that only by pursuing an aggressive budgetary policy will it be possible to emerge from the economic slump.
Another point of contention is international security. Japan's territorial waters and airspace border China, Russia, and North Korea, and the country is threatened by its ships, fighter jets, and missiles. With China, there is the issue of the Senkaku Islands; with Russia, there is the issue of the Northern Territories (Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan, and the Habomai Islands); and with South Korea, there is the issue of Takeshima, and no solution has been found. According to the "Public Opinion Survey on Diplomacy" (January 2024) conducted by the Cabinet Public Relations Office, the ratio of people who "feel friendly toward" China and Russia to those who "do not feel friendly toward" them is 12.7 to 86.7 and 4.1 to 95.3, respectively. In other words, it is clear that public opinion is not pro-China or pro-Russia, but when it comes to territorial disputes, it is divided into two camps: the soft and the hard. Many news media were suspicious of the hard-line stance taken by Takaichi and others, including their visits to Yasukuni Shrine, and public opinion tended to follow suit. This overlaps with the current supporters and opponents of the Japanese Constitution and connects with the supporters and opponents of the female line emperors in the Imperial Household Law.
To receive up-to-date information from the government and preferential treatment regarding taxation, the government and the media have a close relationship, including human interaction. Due to the influence of the Ministry of Finance, the media tended to exclude policies that were critical of the austerity measures. In other words, compared to social networking sites, where there is no need to consider the government, there was a particular bias in mass media coverage. In addition to the information that Takaichi's popularity was low, there was also coverage of Takaichi's national policy report materials as campaign materials. Prominent political commentators also added to these arguments. Do these media and commentators know that they are being subjected to scathing criticism on social networking sites? The questions asked by the moderators, which were less related to the substance of the debate, were aimed at obscuring the candidates' arguments. The media coverage of the LDP presidential election highlighted the violation of the public's right to know, and as a result, the media-supported candidate, Shigeru Ishiba, was elected president. In other words, it could be said that the media won, but it also highlighted the media's bias in reporting. There are probably many people who are disappointed and angry about this state of Japanese society. 81% of Japanese now use social networking services. The media and critics ignoring social networking sites has led to a loss of trust in them.
After Friday's decision, the exchange rate swung sharply in favor of the Yen. This leads us to predict a crash on Monday. The birth of a new prime minister usually leads to a rise in stock prices as a "congratulatory gift," but this time, it is almost abnormal. This is reminiscent of the birth of UK Prime Minister Liz Truss. When Truss became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2022, the British stock market fell sharply due to her proposed economic policies. As a result, she became the UK's shortest-serving prime minister, holding office for just 50 days. The shortest-serving prime minister in Japan was Prince Naruhiko Higashikuni, who served only 54 days from August 17 to October 9, 1945. The prime ministers were Tsutomu Hata (who served 64 days from April 28 to June 30, 1994) and Tanzan Ishibashi (65 days from December 23, 1956 to February 25, 1957). The Ishiba administration is rocky, but we must wait and see for now.
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